Idea #20: Media networks are headed for extinction
Media networks are becoming less relevant. Or rather, OTHER networks are becoming MORE important. We're seeing the last days of media networks and service providers deciding what we see and hear.
The large networks that have dominated our media consumption for the past 100 years are on the verge of extinction. The Internet has caused what used to be a relatively tiny funnel into people's conciousness to blow open. The first step in the network power dilution process came with the advent of
cable and satellite systems, which allowed people to choose from a much wider range of networks. That caused traditional network viewership to shrink, but only in proportion to the number of new choices. And you could only start a new network with a pretty massive amount of funding and effort.
The Internet is changing everything. When IPTV becomes common sometime in the next 10 years, cable and satellite providers will no longer be the gatekeepers who determine which choices are available. The number of choices is exploding, and this is diluting the major networks' market share even further. The only thing standing in the way of mass adoption is hardware integration. I can already hook my HDTV to my laptop to view high-def movies over the Internet, but that's too complex for the general public. Once TV's have built-in Internet integration and the software for delivering media is perfected, it'll be just as easy as watching TV is today, probably easier.
As the media networks disintegrate, computing costs continue to drop, and Internet hardware integration happens media creators will be in control of their own destiny. When it's a straight shot to the source of the media (as it is to a Web site), and there are no gatekeepers such as networks and service providers in between, the success of any given content will depend on how many people it can attract.
Large content producers are already noticing that they don't have to play the old game any longer. They don't have to split the pie. Once they have a loyal following, the medium over which the content is delivered becomes irrelevant. Take the NFL, for example. They're ruffling some feathers with their decision to start airing games on their own network. Although it's locked into broadcast contracts with TV networks for the next 5 or 6 years, I can imagine that they're already starting to think about streaming games live from NFL.com. It'll be yet another nail in the coffin of traditional networks. As there are fewer and fewer marquee content choices on the major networks, they'll eventually fade from the public mind.
Companies that used to be huge information gatekeepers are falling into extinction. Content aggregators and filters are becoming much more important than delivery platforms. I can't imagine a much better thing that could happen to our society.
Part of the 60 Ideas in 60 Days series. Click here for the rest of the ideas.



