R.I.P. Microsoft

Dell just announced that they’re going to start shipping PC’s with Linux pre-installed. I think this is the beginning of the end for Microsoft. Once people see a price difference on the system list between the Windows and Linux desktops, they’re slowly but surely going to start the migration to the cheaper alternative. This will result in pressure being put on all the major manufacturers and distributors to start shipping Linux desktops as well, or they will lose that business to Dell (and create one hell of a marketing opportunity for Dell until they close that gap). This will result in a lot more facetime for Linux with the average user, which will result in the price increase for a Windows system becoming even harder to swallow, which will result in more market share, and so on until Windows dies.

I wonder if the guys at the top of Microsoft are looking at this and REALLY trying to figure how to respond long-term, or they are just being pissed and strategizing about toilet papering Michael Dell’s house. They can’t strong-arm shelf space anymore, their arms are being chopped off. As I’ve said before, I think the only way to keep Windows in the race for more than a couple more years is to make it open source.

This idea seems to have been picked up by Paul Graham and the Tech.Meme crowd, interesting to read other people’s opinions on it.

Share and Enjoy:

http://www.eighty-twenty.net Gordon Weakliem

Somehow I thought Dell had already tried this before and scrapped the program – maybe that was with servers? Anyhow, some of the Linux distros are really nice now. Some not so nice, but in either case I suppose it saves you a ton of money on licensing. Makes me wonder though how many people will ask for Linux and then load a pirate copy of Windows…
http://geekspeaker.spaces.live.com Jason B.

Hi Jason. Well, I agree in principle but you are saying a bit too much like matter of fact. In truth, Microsoft is a hellish competitor and the moment they see market share heading south, they will enact one of several story boarded execution plans which they no doubt have refined over for the last 10 years.

Like I said, this is only one scenario, and there are many actions ahead which will either steer Linux more into the mainstream or further away from the mainstream.

Here's how I see it all happening. First I see PCs in the future going down two roads. there will be the commodity PCs, and then there will be a persons main PC. Commodity PCs will just be either general PCs or specialty PCs. There are not many Linux users who don't also keep either a PC or a partition running windows.

I spent the last four months of last year using nothing but Linux. It was sincerely great, but i would be lying to you if I said I didn't enjoy installing Vista Ultimate and Office Ultimate for the first time. (first time retail.)

In order for you and I to see into the future we have to look through the eyes of normal folks. I don't see our grandmothers choosing the one with Linux unless you install it for her or she saw the price difference after already being familiar with Linux. My mom and grandmother play a game online called Slingo. This is just an example but let's say that Slingo requires ActiveX (not sure). My grandmother would be crushed if she purchased a Linux box only to found out that one of the few things she enjoyed was taken away by something she didn't understand. Ah, very good point though, in thruth, many things could happen. One for sure fact is, competition is good for you and me.
http://www.jasonkolb.com Jason Kolb

@Jason –
Intelligent analysis, makes a lot of sense to me. I've actually been thinking about this a lot since I posted this, and it seems to me like there is a gradient of computer users, and at both ends are people who make a good fit for Linux. At one end are the IT pros who value open source, like the price, and see the advantages. In the middle are the "average computer users", who use Office at work and are used to Windows, these will be the last people to convert over and will dictate the timeline. At the far end, though, are new computer users. Either people who are buying their first computer or get one thru a $100 laptop program or something like that. Not having been indoctrinated into Windows, I don't think they'll know what they're missing, and probably won't be willing to pay real money to find out. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
http://eastman1.blogspot.com DE

I doubt Dell are making any heartfelt conversion to open source – they are just playing the field.

The obvious M$ response is to offer a free Windows lite to box shifters, push linux off the map, and revert back to normal later.
Greg

I think you're being far too quick to write off Microsoft. The thing that keeps people tied to Windows isn't the operating system features; it's the tons of applications that exist only on or for Windows and that people rely on. So all that Microsoft has to do to keep most of their user base is to drop the price of Windows enough so that the cost difference between a Windows machine and a Linux one is small enough that people are willing to pay the difference – e.g., users might opt for Linux if the machine were $400 cheaper, but would stick with Windows if the difference is only $100 or $200.

I agree with you that Dell's move will certainly help Linux take a bigger share of the desktop market, but I really doubt that this will seriously harm Windows. (And I say this as a guy who likes Linux and who wants to see it succeed on the desktop).
Kishor Gurtu

Pre-installed Linux PCs have been available for a long time here in India. People who find MS pricy, buy these PCs and then load a pirated version of Windows on it. The people who always bought Windows continue to do so and this number is increasing as income levels rise. So your hypothesis is incorrect.
Bubba Joe Johnson

A completely different option is that the Linux desktops are just used as dumb terminals used to run remote desktop sessions on a Windows Server deep in a cave in Utah. And lets not forget Sharepoint 2007! Microsoft is crushing everyone else in the industry. The fact that so few recognize this fact says two things: 1) How poorly UNIX/LINUX programmers understand the real world (especially IT). 2) They don't understand the fact that Sharepoint 2007 takes MS-Office to the Internet. 3) MS-Office is far more important than Windows or Vista. MS-Office's rivals are poor replacements for most people, especially as Office 2007 including Sharepoint 2007 take off. 4) Microsoft could easily port Windows and/or Office to Linux. With virtualization, why bother? 5) Consider the Mac. A UNIX based machine. The most important recent feature…you can run Windows on it. That shows how important Microsoft really is to the modern computer topography.