It’s always fun to try to predict how technology will evolve in the future.  Sometimes we’re right and sometimes we’re wrong--but usually only in terms of timeframes.  Even the most outlandish predictions end up coming true eventually.

I believe that one of the milestones of the next phase of Internet evolution will be the mass realization that there is no fundamental difference between different types of messages, except for the way they are transmitted.  A message is a message is a message.  Emails, voicemails, phone calls, text messages, blog posts, podcasts, and instant messages—they are all just packets of information at their core, after you strip away the chrome.  Programmers are very familiar with this concept, most other people are not—yet.

This idea is making its way towards mass comprehension though, thanks to services like Twitter, GrandCentral, and the iPhone (ok, so the iPhone isn’t a service, just bear with me…).  These services blur the lines between instant messages, blog posts, and text messages by making them almost interchangeable.  They generate buzz solely for the reason that they allow people to use some types of messages in ways that were previously only available to other types of messages.  (For example, Twitter simply allows people to use blog posts in a way more traditionally associated with instant messaging and text messaging, and it’s generated an insane amount of hype.)

The reason why I think this idea is so key to the next phase of Internet evolution is because there is so much value to be had from handling all types of messages in the same way.  The iPhone generated alot of buzz because it allows its users to manage their voicemails in the same way they manage their emails, using a visual inbox format (GrandCentral allows you to do the same thing, as I noted in my review earlier).  But ALL types of messages should be handled this way, in my opinion.  Then just marry a feed reader like Google Reader with this universal inbox system and they will make a baby that generates more buzz than you’ve ever seen--a true mobile identity platform.

But the real reason this excites me is because as people begin to handle all forms of messages in the same way, using the same system, this will lead to a more cohesive and unified concept of online identity.  As messages start to be seen as more of a nebulous blob of information, and less of a “text message”, or “voicemail” or “email”, people will start to realize that they *should* be able to handle and manage them in an efficient manner, regardless of what type of message it is.  We're just reaching this point now with the recent evolution in voicemail handling systems.  This will eventually lead to a greater appreciation of and need for a universal message inbox, a unified contact list, and eventually a converged messaging identity.  They will realize that there is no good reason why they can’t use the same identifier/identity for all of these different types of messages .  A converged messaging identity turns every person on the network into a network node, resulting in a true network of human beings.

I’ve been forecasting an eventual converged/consolidated online identity system for well over a year now, and I’m starting to see the first hints of it actually happening now with releases like Twitter, GrandCentral, and the iPhone.  I truly believe that it’s only a matter of time before people demand it, as their level of technological sophistication rises.  The bits and pieces of technology that are a part of this evolution are starting to float to the surface and gain visibility, if not mass acceptance.  Only time will tell how far off I am on the timing of these developments.