Exceeding System Capacity: No longer a problem
Over the past six or seven years, when credit was plentiful and the money supply was exploding, people were spending money like crazy, even to the point financing much of their consumption. Giant flat screen TV's with low low monthly payments and so on.
This resulted in a flood of customers to most businesses, which steadily increased as our consumption society really started roaring. A big problem for many businesses was that their infrastructure was not built to handle such a large volume of customers.
This created a bubble in the technology industry--products that were built to help businesses accommodate perpetual growth. That growth has now slammed into reverse.
Many solutions were built to handle this sudden influx of new customers. Many productivity-saving systems had the end goal of allowing a business to handle more customers more easily.
- Customer Relationship Management software to keep track of them.
- Enterprise Resource Planning software to use resources more effectively.
- Hardware systems that allow companies to scale more quickly. Virtualization. Cloud computing.
As consumers have stopped spending and businesses no longer need to expand their capacity, I wonder what will happen to this segment of the market.
I can easily see a scenario where businesses have far more capacity than they'll need for the next ten years. The spending orgy of the past ten years has resulted in most businesses being prepared for annual growth for eternity.
I think it goes without saying at this point that we are smack in the middle of a deflationary collapse, and I would not be surprised to see demand shrink back to levels not seen for decades. Businesses that have prepared for perpetual growth are going to be WAY over capacity for a LONG time.
What does this do to the hardware and software industries? I think hardware is going to be hit particularly hard, as it is an expensive line-item with low margins, and one that can easily be re-sold from business with over-capacity to any that actually need hardware.
Software is in the same boat. As earnings of companies like Oracle have recently pointed out, businesses have put a freeze on spending that is geared towards expanding capacity. What's the point of buying a shiny new database server when your old, overtaxed system is now working perfectly fine with your customer base chopped in half?
I have a feeling the technology industry is going to look completely different by the time this is all done unwinding.




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