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This is my personal blog and anything I write here in no way reflects the opinion of Cisco Systems, my employer. If it does, it is only by pure coincidence :) Nothing here constitutes investment advice either, so you can't sue me.

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    Betting on Twitter 

    This is kind of funny.

    You can now bet real money on who will acquire Twitter in 2009.  I tend to agree that this will happen, and in fact one of my predictions for 2009 was that Twitter would be acquired:

    Twitter will be acquired, strictly for the brand and user base, for pennies on the dollar compared to its previous valuations.  It will be integrated as a feature into some unified communications platform.  It is not viable as a stand-alone company unless the founders can afford to run it out of their basement.

    BetOnline, the site taking the bets, has these odds:

    • Google – even money
    • Facebook 5 to 1
    • Microsoft 10 to 1
    • Yahoo 20 to 1
    • Field 5 to 1
    • No 2009 acquisition 2.5 to 1

    I can't say I agree with the odds at all.

    Continue reading "Betting on Twitter" Continue reading this post

    Obama the one-term president 

    Great read from Bloomberg:

    Why doesn’t the Obama administration force insolvent banks and insurance companies to come clean about their losses first? It’s the “why” that’s so vexing. The who, what, when, and how are mere details, by comparison.

    More than anyone else’s, it should be in Obama’s political self-interest to accelerate the worst of the financial crisis and get as much of the inevitable pain behind us as quickly as possible. Every day he waits is one less day he will have between the time we hit rock bottom and the next election. And yet, Obama and his minions are doing all they can to delay the reckoning, which only will make it worse.

    They're right.  The longer he delays the inevitable, the more this will be seen as "his problem".  His honeymoon is about over.  Unless Obama grows a pair quickly and forces this problem to clear, he is going to preside over four years of a declining economy and the Republicans will have a field day in 2012.

    Maybe he's not the political genius everyone thought he was.  Perhaps it was just the laughably anemic competition he was facing.

    How To Look Really Smart 

    Learn to use Google, well.

    Seriously.

    Continue reading "How To Look Really Smart" Continue reading this post

    Goldman Sachs, Shut Up. 

    These banks are out of control.  Goldman is finding fraud less profitable these days and has decided to pursue a new revenue stream from trying to squeeze money from critical bloggers.

    Continue reading "Goldman Sachs, Shut Up." Continue reading this post

    How Empires Fall 

    I'm reading a fascinating book on the fall of the Roman empire, a topic I've had an interest in for a long time.  It amazes me that such a mighty and expansive civilization could collapse, and makes me wonder about any parallels to our country/empire.

    I'm only about about half way through the book, but so far it seems that everything can be neatly summed up by saying that the expenses of the empire ramped continuously into the fourth century AD to completely unsustainable levels, primarily due to military spending and welfare.  Eventually the tax burden became so great that working classes became destitute and devolved into destitution and lawlessness.

    In other news, US tax revenues are down 28% year over year in March, and Obama and crew plan to spend record amounts of money while saying they're going to cut the deficit.  Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, the United States Treasury is running on fumes.

    In all fairness, though, the Roman Empire didn't have a fractional reserve monetary system which means that they were unable to borrow to pay expenses.  Balanced budget all the time.  However, this means that our eventual implosion will be much quicker and more dramatic when it arrives as almost all funding will be cut instantaneously when we default.  It could literally happen in the course of a year or two.